8 Suppliers · Q2 2026 Rates · Risk & Trend Analysis

Smart Export Guarantee Tracker

SEG rates vary from 5.5p to 12p/kWh across UK suppliers — a difference of £100–£150/year on a 4 kWp system. Here's which suppliers pay best, which are cutting rates, and what the legislative risks are for the next five years.

12p/kWh
Best fixed SEG rate Q2 2026
Octopus Outgoing — down from 15p Oct 2025
5.5p/kWh
Lowest compliant rate
legal minimum is 1p — suppliers set their own
£100–£150
Annual difference best vs worst
on a typical 4 kWp South East system
50 GW
UK solar target by 2030
rising grid saturation = SEG rate pressure ahead

SEG Rate Comparison — Q2 2026

Sort by best rate, supplier name, or risk level. Click any row for full eligibility details and our assessment of rate stability.

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8 suppliers · Q2 2026 ratesClick any row for full details
Important: SEG rates are set commercially by suppliers and can be changed with 30 days' notice. The rates above were correct as of Q2 2026 but may have changed. Always verify the current rate on your supplier's website before making financial decisions. You are not required to use your import supplier for export — you can switch export supplier independently.

SEG Legislative Risk — The Next 5 Years

The SEG is secure as a scheme but rates face structural downward pressure. Here's what's driving that risk and how to protect yourself.

Smart Export Guarantee supplier comparison — SEG rates across UK energy suppliers Q2 2026
Low Risk

Scheme abolition risk

The SEG is enshrined in the Energy Act 2008. Abolition would require primary legislation and political capital. No party has proposed abolition. Risk rating: Low. The scheme continues in some form through the 2030s.

Medium Risk

Rate compression risk

As UK solar capacity grows toward 50 GW, midday electricity prices (when solar peaks) will fall — possibly turning negative more often. Suppliers will adjust SEG rates downward to reflect this. Octopus cut from 15p to 12p in March 2026. Expect continued gradual compression. Risk rating: Medium-High.

High Risk

Risk without battery storage

Homeowners exporting at midday without the ability to shift to peak periods are most exposed to SEG rate compression. As agile pricing becomes standard, the gap between 4pm export value and noon export value will widen. Battery storage is the primary hedge. Risk rating: High if no storage.

Maximise Your SEG Income

The biggest SEG gains come from choosing the right supplier and adding battery storage to shift your export to peak-rate periods. Use our battery calculator to model the exact impact.

The duck curve — solar generation peaks at midday while home demand peaks in the evening, creating SEG rate pressure as grid saturation grows

Smart Export Guarantee — Frequently Asked Questions